GoAI Market Wrap - 29th Jan
Stock Market
On Wednesday (January 28), the three major US indices closed mixed.
At close: Dow Jones +0.02% to 49,015.60, Nasdaq Composite +0.17% to 23,857.45, S&P 500 -0.01% to 6,978.03 (intraday high 7,002.28 — a new record high, briefly breaking 7,000 early in the session).
Two hours before the close, the Fed announced it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, in line with expectations. Chair Powell later commented: “It’s hard to say that current policy is strongly restrictive.”
Given this remark, Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management, expects the Fed to hold rates steady until Powell’s chairmanship ends in May. He noted: “Inflation is slightly above expectations, unemployment is rising — there’s some tension between the two. Right now they’re roughly neutral and happy to stay put.”
Ellerbroek added: “Now the ball is in Trump’s court because he’ll nominate the new chair.” Shortly before press time, Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated the new Fed Chair nominee could be announced in about a week.
Chip stocks rallied strongly overall. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed +2.34%, hitting another all-time high. Intel surged 11.04%, Texas Instruments +9.94% (after beating expectations on guidance the prior day).
Ellerbroek commented: “In 2023, 2024, and most of 2025, AI-related semiconductors were very strong with robust demand. But other semiconductor end-markets — automotive, industrial, telecom — were weak.”
“Now the situation has flipped. Almost every segment of the semiconductor market has demand far exceeding supply.”
Global Markets
Trump: A Massive Fleet Is Heading to Iran
On January 28, President Trump posted on social media that a large fleet is en route to Iran and ready to fulfill its mission swiftly. He added that he hopes Iran will quickly come to the negotiating table.
Iran FM: Armed Forces on High Alert
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi responded on social media to Trump’s latest threat, stating that Iranian armed forces are on high alert and will respond swiftly and decisively to any aggression against Iranian territory, airspace, or waters.
He noted that lessons from the “12-Day War” (June 13–24, 2025 direct Israel-Iran conflict) have strengthened Iran’s ability to respond with greater force, speed, and intensity.
Fed Holds Steady; Milan & Waller Dissent for 25 bps Cut
The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%–3.75% (as widely expected), following three prior 25 bps cuts (September, October, December 2025). Governors Milan and Waller dissented, favoring a 25 bps cut.
Company News
Tesla: Optimus Gen 1 Production Line Underway
Tesla said it will further invest in autonomous robot infrastructure. The first-generation Optimus humanoid robot production line is being set up. Cybercab and Tesla Semi are on track for volume production in 2026; Megapack 3 is also expected to enter volume production this year.
Musk: Next-Gen Neuralink BCI Will Triple Performance
Musk posted that the next-generation enhanced Neuralink brain-computer interface will deliver triple the performance and launch later this year. Once approved by regulators, Neuralink plans to introduce its first “blindsight” augmentation technology, enabling fully blind individuals to perceive low-resolution vision.
Meta Revenue Outlook Beats Expectations
Meta Q4 revenue $59.89 billion (+24% YoY, beat est. $58.42 billion); ad revenue $58.14 billion (+24%, beat est. $56.79 billion); EPS $8.88 (vs. $8.02 last year); operating profit $24.75 billion (+5.9%). Meta guided full-year capex at $115–135 billion (above consensus $110.6 billion). Q1 revenue guidance $53.5–56.5 billion (above consensus $51.3 billion).
IBM Q4 Revenue +12% YoY
IBM Q4 revenue $19.69 billion (+12% YoY, beat est. $19.21 billion); software revenue $9.03 billion (+14%, beat est. $8.82 billion); consulting revenue $5.35 billion (+3.4%, slightly below est. $5.38 billion); operating EPS $4.52 (beat est. $4.28); free cash flow $7.55 billion (+23%, beat est. $6.85 billion).
Forex & Commodities
Trump’s renewed threats against Iran and call for nuclear talks pushed oil to four-month highs. WTI March crude +1.31% to $63.21/bbl (highest since late September); Brent March +1.23% to $68.40/bbl.
Gold hit another record high: spot gold +4.53% to $5,414.9/oz (intraday high $5,598.88); spot silver +3.98% to $116.62/oz (high $119.44).
Key Events
After Trump Praises Dollar Weakness, Treasury Sec. Bessent Steps In to Calm Markets
On Wednesday local time, the dollar index attempted to stabilize after Tuesday’s plunge. Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized that the US is still pursuing a “strong dollar policy” and denied rumors of intervention to support the yen.
Trump, when asked in Iowa on Tuesday if the dollar had fallen too much, replied “No, I think it’s good.” That triggered the dollar index’s largest daily drop since April last year and pushed it to near 4-year lows. Since Trump took office in January 2025, the index has fallen nearly 10%.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 24h -0.21% to $88,968.61.
Ethereum -0.46% to $3,002.97.
XRP -0.38%, BNB +0.31%, Solana -1.51%.
Dogecoin -1.07%, Cardano -0.57%.
Key Events
FXGT: Bitcoin Bottoming Rebound Signal Emerges
On January 28, amid recent volatility in digital assets, FXGT observed that extreme US weather has driven up mining costs, pushing Bitcoin miners into a deep “capitulation” cycle. This forced hashrate reduction due to squeezed profitability has triggered a bottoming signal on the on-chain Hash Ribbon indicator.
History shows miner capitulation phases often coincide with Bitcoin price bottoms — a key signal for long-term investors.
Despite short-term hashrate pressure creating market doubt, the current Hash Ribbon status suggests a rebound is approaching. FXGT advises patience and monitoring the next difficulty adjustment and hashrate recovery; once capitulation eases, Bitcoin could resume its uptrend and challenge higher psychological levels.