No Fear of Epic Volatility! UBS Dramatically Raises Gold Target — Sees $6,200 in Coming Months

 

Amid an epic, history-making swing in international gold prices, UBS has sharply lifted its gold price targets. The bank now forecasts $6,200 per ounce for March, June, and September 2026 (up from its previous $5,000 target), citing stronger-than-expected investment-driven demand.

 

However, UBS expects a modest pullback to $5,900/oz after the 2026 U.S. mid-term elections.

 

On Thursday, spot gold swung wildly: peaking near $5,600/oz before plunging to around $5,100/oz — a single-day range of nearly $500. In Friday’s Asian session, profit-taking pushed prices sharply lower; spot gold hovered around $5,200/oz as of press time.

 

(15-minute spot gold chart – Source: Investing.com)

 

Gold has risen more than 20% year-to-date in 2026, extending last year’s historic rally. Key drivers include surging investment demand, aggressive central-bank buying, dollar weakness, and escalating geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

 

The World Gold Council’s (WGC) report released Thursday showed global gold demand rose 1% YoY to 5,002 tonnes in 2025 — a new all-time high and the first time ever exceeding 5,000 tonnes.

 

Investment demand exploded 84% to a record 2,175 tonnes, the primary force behind the total-demand record. Investors poured into gold ETFs (+801 tonnes net inflows for the year), while physical bar and coin demand remained robust at 1,374 tonnes. Central-bank purchases totaled 863 tonnes — below recent peaks but still elevated.

 

UBS raised its 2026 demand forecasts for most sectors but kept central-bank buying unchanged at around 950 tonnes.

 

The bank highlighted Poland’s decision to raise its gold holding target from 550 tonnes to 700 tonnes — if emulated by more countries, it could signal reduced central-bank price sensitivity to gold.

 

UBS also noted that despite record-high prices, physical gold demand in China remained resilient (supported by seasonal factors and positive sentiment), though it is expected to soften after Lunar New Year.

 

The bank provided extreme-case scenarios: upside target $7,200/oz, downside target $4,600/oz.

 

UBS explained that a hawkish pivot by the Fed could weigh on gold, while a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions could drive prices even higher.