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US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) at 0.4%, Above Market Expectations

GoAI MacroCast
GoAI MacroCast
February 12, 2026

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) in the United States rose by 0.4% in January, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%. This marks an acceleration from the previous month's increase of 0.1%, suggesting stronger wage growth and potential inflationary pressures.

 

Potential Impacts

Increased average hourly earnings exert upward pressure on inflation, influencing central bank decisions regarding interest rates. Higher wages generally support consumer spending, which is a significant component of economic activity.

 

Stronger wage growth typically correlates with increased business costs, potentially affecting corporate profit margins and investment decisions. Elevated inflation expectations can lead to higher bond yields as investors demand greater compensation for holding debt.

 

A stronger earnings report strengthens the domestic currency due to the increased likelihood of tighter monetary policy. This can make imports cheaper but exports more expensive, influencing trade balances and international capital flows.