Shaking Off AI Anxiety? Wall Street Firms Hike NVIDIA Price Targets: Is a March Reversal Ahead?
Despite delivering robust fourth-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares faced heavy selling pressure, plunging approximately 5.5% on Thursday and another 4.2% on Friday.
Regardless of how strong the results are, a post-earnings sell-off appears to have become the norm for NVIDIA—a phenomenon dubbed the "NVIDIA Curse." Months ago, during an all-hands meeting following Q3 results, CEO Jensen Huang quipped about this catch-22:
"If our results were poor, it would prove an AI bubble exists; if our results are excellent, it’s seen as fueling an AI bubble."
However, despite the recent price dip, Wall Street's major investment institutions remain steadfast. Following the report, analysts at Bank of America (BofA), Citigroup, and Truist Financial hiked their price targets, reiterating their bullish outlook.
BofA: NVIDIA to Become the Most Reliable AI Supplier
Post-earnings, BofA analyst Vivek Arya and his team raised non-GAAP EPS estimates for FY2027/28/29 by 5%, 10%, and 13%, respectively, to $8.11/$10.72/$13.18. They maintained a "Buy" rating and lifted the price target from $275 to $300.
The team noted that NVIDIA "over-delivered," with Q1 revenue growth expected to accelerate to 77%, up from the 73%, 63%, and 56% seen over the previous three quarters.
BofA specifically highlighted the surge in "purchase obligations"—contracts to buy goods within specific timeframes. In the latest report, this figure skyrocketed to $95 billion, up from $16 billion a year ago. On Thursday, noted bear Michael Burry flagged this as a potential risk, arguing that TSMC’s demand for more cash prepayments forces NVIDIA to place non-cancelable orders before demand is fully clear. Burry warns that if downstream demand wavers, this ballooning figure could jeopardize the company's financial health.
BofA analysts, however, viewed the spike through a positive lens, noting that a three-fold increase in procurement obligations ensures supply-chain stability. They argued this makes NVIDIA "likely the most reliable supplier in an AI market that could double to $1.4 trillion in the coming years."
Citi: March GTC Conference Could Catalyze a Rally
Citigroup maintained its "Buy" rating and raised its price target from $270 to $300. They forecast Q1 revenue to beat expectations and reach $50 billion, driven by exponential growth in agentic AI demand.
Citi specifically noted that the upcoming GTC Conference in mid-March will serve as a positive catalyst. NVIDIA is expected to showcase Groq SRAM low-latency inference, as well as CPU and optical networking technologies. Furthermore, any guidance regarding FY2027 sales could act as a significant tailwind.
The bank raised its FY2027 and FY2028 revenue forecasts by 4%, reflecting better-than-expected demand for Blackwell and Rubin. Citi also introduced a FY2029 revenue forecast of $566 billion, projecting a 35% CAGR from 2025 to 2028.
Broad Analyst Support
Beyond Citi and BofA, Truist Financial raised its target from $275 to $283 with a "Buy" rating. Rosenblatt analysts also hiked their target to $300, noting that Q4 results beat consensus and Q1 guidance sits 7% above market expectations.
Rosenblatt pointed out that management effectively addressed concerns regarding GPU capacity, TPU competition, power availability, and memory supply. The 90% quarter-over-quarter increase in purchase commitments to $95.2 billion signals management’s confidence in meeting demand for next-generation platforms. The firm expects NVIDIA to remain the undisputed leader in the AI market through FY2027.