GoAI Market Wrap - 3rd Mar
Stock Market
On Monday, U.S. equities experienced significant volatility following joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, ultimately finishing largely flat. Despite a sharp gap down at the open due to the geopolitical shock, recurring "buy-the-dip" activity throughout the morning session pushed indices back toward their opening levels.
Global markets were jolted over the weekend by the coordinated strikes, which resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. While oil prices surged and most international benchmarks closed lower, the resilience of U.S. investors during the early session sell-off suggests a prevailing expectation that the conflict's disruption may remain relatively contained.
President Trump provided the first outline of U.S. war aims, stating that the operation could last four to five weeks. He emphasized that the mission is surgical: destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, crippling its navy, preventing nuclear weapon acquisition, and "ensuring the Iranian regime can no longer arm, fund, and direct proxy armies abroad."
Bill Smead, Chairman of Smead Capital Management, noted: "Market participants view this as transitory, and the issues in the oil patch will eventually fade."
While the conflict initially boosted defense and energy stocks while weighing on travel and rate-sensitive sectors, capital eventually flowed back into tech. Investors are currently weighing the conflict's duration against its impact on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Strategists at Morgan Stanley, led by Michael Wilson, argued that historical Middle East conflicts haven't caused long-term market downturns. They suggested that for this war to deal a sustained blow to U.S. equities, oil prices would likely need to jump above $100 per barrel.
In contrast, European and Asian markets broadly declined, with French and German indices both falling by more than 1%.
Global Markets
Trump: Military Action May Last 4–5 Weeks
President Trump stated that while the campaign against Iran is slated for 4–5 weeks, the U.S. is prepared for a longer timeline. He claimed the U.S. has already sunk 10 Iranian vessels and aims to fully dismantle their naval and nuclear capabilities.
Iran Claims Closure of Strait of Hormuz
An advisor to the IRGC commander stated late March 2 that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and all vessels attempting transit will be targeted. A formal official statement from the IRGC is still pending.
Macron Increases French Nuclear Arsenal
Citing rising global instability, President Macron has ordered an increase in France's nuclear warhead count to bolster "European strategic autonomy." The specific numbers will remain classified.
Corporate News
NVIDIA Invests $4B in Optical Tech
NVIDIA announced $2 billion strategic investments each into Lumentum and Coherent. The deals include multi-billion dollar purchase commitments to accelerate next-generation AI infrastructure and assist in building a new U.S. wafer fab.
Apple Releases iPhone 17e
Apple unveiled the iPhone 17e starting at 4,499 RMB. Pre-orders begin March 4, with shipping on March 11. Notably, the base storage has doubled to 256GB compared to the 16e, offering "more specs at the same price."
SpaceX: Starship Flight 12 in 4–6 Weeks
SpaceX executives announced a mid-2027 commercial debut for Starship to deploy upgraded Starlink satellites. The next test flight is expected within 4–6 weeks.
Forex & Commodities
International oil prices rose on March 2.
By the close, WTI crude futures rose $4.01 to $71.03/bbl (+5.98%). COMEX gold futures rose $88.00 (+1.68%) to $5,335.9/oz.
COMEX silver futures fell $3.68 to $89.61/oz. Spot gold rose $42.90 to $5,322.12/oz, while spot silver fell $4.48 to $89.36/oz.
Key Events
Oil Prices Surge as War Escalates
Crude prices jumped over 6% on Monday as fears of an uncontrollable U.S.-Iran war fueled supply disruption concerns.
Brent settled at $77.74 and WTI at $71.23.
The death of Iran's Supreme Leader in U.S.-Israeli strikes has left a power vacuum in OPEC's fourth-largest producer. UBS analysts noted that the speed of restoring traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the scale of Iranian retaliation are now the primary drivers for oil prices.
Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency markets saw broad-based gains over the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $69,116.12 (+4.51%), while Ethereum (ETH) rose 4.48% to $2,036.74.
Key Events
MicroStrategy Buys $200M More in Bitcoin
MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchased 3,015 BTC for ~$204.1 million (avg. $67,700) between Feb 23 and March 1. Total holdings now reach 720,737 BTC. Despite a brief dip during the Middle East conflict, the recovery in BTC prices propelled MSTR shares up 6.29% on Monday.