GoAI Market Wrap - 13th Mar

Stock Market

U.S. equity indices closed sharply lower on Thursday as the first public statement from Iran’s new Supreme Leader dashed hopes of a swift de-escalation. The resulting spike in crude oil toward the $100-per-barrel mark reignited inflation fears and triggered a broad-based sell-off in risk assets.

All three major benchmarks declined by more than 1.5%. Aside from the energy sector and select defensive plays, the rout was widespread across all sectors.

The new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated on Thursday that Iran would continue to utilize strategic maneuvers, including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while launching strikes against U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Simultaneously, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the war is causing the most significant oil supply disruption in history, further fueling concerns over mounting inflationary pressures.

WTI crude futures for the front-month contract settled 9.7% higher, while Brent crude surged 9.2% to touch the $100-per-barrel threshold.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated Thursday that the Trump administration is considering a temporary waiver of the century-old Jones Act to ensure the unimpeded transport of energy and agricultural products between U.S. ports. An announcement regarding a 30-day waiver is expected as early as Thursday, aimed at mitigating the fuel price spikes and supply disruptions that have emerged since the outbreak of hostilities.

"The market has realized that a resolution to the Middle East conflict may be further delayed," said Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. "The prevailing sentiment is 'sell first, ask questions later.' Aside from energy, there are virtually no safe sectors left."

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to convene on March 17. While recent data suggested price growth remained manageable, the impact of the 13-day war and the subsequent oil spike has yet to be reflected in official figures. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady, but the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be scrutinized for signals regarding upward revisions to inflation forecasts. Beneath the surface, the probability of a Fed rate cut later this year is rapidly diminishing.

Global Markets

Iran Permits Selected Vessels to Pass Through Hormuz

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ravan-chi stated in an interview Thursday that Tehran is allowing ships from certain countries to transit the Strait of Hormuz. While cooperating with nations that have engaged in discussions, he emphasized that countries involved in "aggression against Iran" do not enjoy the right of "safe passage." He further denied that Iran has deployed mines in the strait.

War Jolts Global Fertilizer Supply Chain

Beyond energy, the conflict has severely impacted the international fertilizer supply chain. A report from the UNCTAD highlighted surging shipping costs—including freight, bunker fuel, and insurance—which are driving up fertilizer prices globally. U.S. agricultural experts warn that domestic farmers may be forced to adjust planting structures in response to the crisis.

Mortgage Rates See Largest Jump in 11 Months

U.S. mortgage rates recorded their sharpest increase in nearly a year as war-induced inflation fears clouded the upcoming spring selling season. Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.11% from 6.00% last week, the largest weekly jump since April 2025. Rising Treasury yields, pressured by oil prices, continue to drive borrowing costs higher.

Corporate News

Amazon’s $54 Billion Debt Offering Oversubscribed

Banks managing Amazon’s ($AMZN) bond sale sent a clear message: in an unpredictable world, the retail and cloud giant is a safe haven. Amazon’s $37 billion USD issuance across 11 tranches saw orders peak at $126 billion, near record levels. The company followed this with a record-breaking €14.5 billion (approx. $16.8 billion) Eurobond debut. JPMorgan noted that corporations are being advised to move quickly as market "windows open and close rapidly."

Google Unveils AI Features for Maps

Alphabet ($GOOGL) is executing the largest upgrade to Google Maps in a decade by introducing "Ask Maps." Powered by the Gemini model, the feature allows users to interact with the application conversationally.

Microsoft and Meta Drive Data Center Commitments to $700 Billion

Microsoft ($MSFT) and Meta ($META) each added nearly $50 billion in new data center lease commitments last quarter to bolster AI development. Total future lease obligations among cloud giants, including Oracle and Amazon, have now surpassed $700 billion, with payments structured over 15 to 19 years.

Forex & Commodities

International oil prices surged on March 12:

• WTI Crude Oil Futures rose $9.14 (10.48%) to settle at $96.39/bbl.

• COMEX Gold Futures fell $95.00 (1.83%) to $5,084.10/oz.

• Spot Gold dropped 1.87% to $5,079.20/oz; Spot Silver fell 2.22% to $83.84/oz.

Key Events

Saudi Arabia Aggressively Charters Tankers

Reports on Thursday evening indicate that Saudi national shipping company Bahri is paying premium rates to secure VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers).

The tankers are reportedly heading to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to load crude, effectively bypassing the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Bahri has chartered at least six VLCCs, with brokers expecting more deals to emerge.

Cryptocurrency

Key Events

M4Markets: Bitcoin Displays Safe-Haven Attributes

Analysts at M4Markets suggest that Bitcoin’s resilience during the escalation of geopolitical conflict and private credit turbulence marks its transition from a pure "risk asset" to a "hedging instrument." Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $70,000 level while equities falter indicates a decoupling from traditional asset classes.