GoAI Market Wrap - 24th Mar

Stock Market

In the final hours of a chaotic global trading day, U.S. markets rallied collectively, driven by President Trump’s announcement to suspend the planned strikes on Iranian power plants, successfully averting a four-day losing streak for the three major indices.

 

By the close, the S&P 500 rose 1.15% to 6,581; the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.38% to 21,946.76; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.38% to 46,208.47.

 

By way of background, the U.S. President issued an ultimatum on Saturday, stating that if Iran failed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the U.S. would strike and destroy various Iranian power plants, emphasizing "the largest one first." Iran’s largest power facility is reported to be the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in the country’s southwest.

 

However, several hours before the U.S. opening bell on Monday, Trump announced that "productive talks" had taken place with Iranian leadership, leading to a decision to delay the strikes by five days.

 

As a result, Brent crude plunged over 14% intraday before paring some losses. International gold prices also rebounded from a session low of $4,100/oz back toward $4,400/oz.

 

Major European indices in Germany, France, and Italy also staged a dramatic "V-shaped" recovery, swinging from intraday losses of over 2% to close in positive territory.

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also stated on Monday that he had spoken with Trump, noting an opportunity "to achieve war goals through an agreement." Netanyahu added that Israel would continue its strikes in Iran and Lebanon.

 

In response from the Iranian side, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf posted on social media on the 23rd, denying that any negotiations with the U.S. had taken place and labeling the reports as "fake news" designed to manipulate financial and oil markets.

 

Public information and media reports also indicate that officials from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are actively working to bring U.S. and Iranian officials back to the negotiating table. However, it remains unclear if a path exists to bridge the vast differences between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

 

Coincidentally, during late Monday trading, media reports suggested that thousands of U.S. Marines are expected to arrive in the Middle East by Friday. This includes the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the transport dock USS New Orleans, and approximately 2,200 soldiers from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) previously deployed in the Asia-Pacific, entering the Central Command area of responsibility by Friday. The reports added that the unit might require several more days to reach the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Sources familiar with the matter also revealed that the Pentagon has ordered an amphibious ready group centered around the USS Boxer and the 11th MEU to the Middle East. This unit is expected to depart within weeks and will require several additional weeks to arrive in the Central Command area.

 

Regarding whether Monday's rally can be sustained, most Wall Street analysts stated clearly that they do not know, as no one can currently predict the next turn in geopolitics.

 

Chris Larkin, Head of Trading for E*Trade (Morgan Stanley), noted: "The market was awakened by some potential positive news, but for a rally to be sustainable, we likely need to see tangible geopolitical progress. We are still living in a headline-driven market."

Global Markets

Trump Claims Agreement Framework with Iran Emerges

 

According to U.S. media, President Trump stated on the 23rd that the U.S. had engaged in "strong" dialogue with Iranian leadership and that a framework for an agreement has begun to form. Trump noted the talks were conducted with Iranian leadership, but not with the Supreme Leader. The dialogue was led by Special Envoy Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

 

Iran Foreign Ministry: No Negotiations; Position on Hormuz Unchanged

 

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated on the 23rd that messages regarding U.S. requests for negotiations were received via friendly nations, to which Iran has responded according to its principles. Baghaei warned that any strike on its energy infrastructure would meet a "decisive, immediate, and effective" response from the Iranian armed forces.

 

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: AI May Repeat Wealth Gap Script

 

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned on Monday that the AI boom risks widening the wealth gap unless broader groups share in the resulting market gains.

Corporate News

Apple WWDC26 Keynote Set for June 8

 

Apple announced on Monday that it plans to hold its annual Worldwide Developers Conference from June 8 to June 12, with the keynote scheduled for June 8 local time. The company emphasized in its press release that WWDC26 will focus on breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence.

 

Lufthansa Extends Middle East Flight Suspensions

 

Lufthansa stated on Monday that flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv are suspended through May 31, while routes to Tehran, Beirut, and Abu Dhabi have been extended until October 24. British Airways also announced it would extend its reduced Middle East schedule until May 31.

 

Private Credit Redemption Wave Continues

 

Apollo Global Management shares fell 1.76% post-market. The company disclosed that one of its private credit funds faced 11% redemption requests, triggering a 5% "gate" (redemption cap).

Forex & Commodities

International oil prices fell on March 23.

 

By the close, WTI crude futures fell $9.36, or 9.53%, to settle at $88.87 per barrel. COMEX gold futures fell $164.50, or 3.60%, to $4,410.40 per ounce.

 

COMEX silver futures fell $0.34, or 0.49%, to $69.32 per ounce. Spot gold fell $87.57, or 1.95%, to $4,406.87 per ounce. Spot silver rose $1.25, or 1.84%, to $69.15 per ounce.

Key Events

U.S. Energy Secretary: Likelihood of Further SPR Release is Extremely Low

 

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Monday that while a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is possible given the war context, he views the likelihood as "extremely low." Investors are currently more focused on President Trump's statements regarding the five-day suspension of strikes on Iranian infrastructure.

Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency markets saw broad positive momentum over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $70,680.40 (+4.18%), while Ethereum (ETH) rose 4.46% to $2,143.09.

• BNB: $636.84 (+1.93%)
• XRP: $1.42 (+2.80%)
• Solana (SOL): $91.11 (+5.84%)
• Hyperliquid (HYPE): $37.63 (-0.44%)

Radex Markets Analysis: Bitcoin Moving Average Play; Can a Golden Cross Reverse the Trend?

 

Despite a heavy bearish sentiment, some technical repair signals are emerging.

 

Radex Markets believes the "Golden Cross" of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages on the daily chart may provide breathing room for bulls. However, given the "Death Crosses" in early March, it remains to be seen if this is a true reversal or a technical bounce.