GoAI Market Wrap - 25th Mar
Stock Market
U.S. equity markets resumed their downward trajectory overnight as conflicting headlines regarding Middle East tensions weighed on investor sentiment.
The primary catalyst for Tuesday's market pressure was news of further U.S. troop deployments to the Middle East. Reports indicated that units from the 82nd Airborne Division are set to deploy. The division maintains an "Immediate Response Force" capable of deploying anywhere in the world within approximately 18 hours.
Subsequent details revealed that the deployment orders involve two battalions and support units, with Major General Brandon Tegtmeier and his staff also ordered to the theater. Additionally, two Marine Expeditionary Units (totaling approximately 5,000 personnel) are expected to arrive in the region in the coming days.
In contrast to these military movements, President Trump again spoke extensively on Tuesday regarding ongoing negotiations with Iran. Speaking at the White House, Trump noted that his envoy Steven Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Vice President JD Vance are all involved. "We are dealing with the right people," Trump said, adding that they are "trustworthy in my opinion."
Notably, post-market reports from Israeli media suggested that the U.S.-led negotiation framework includes a "one-month ceasefire" mechanism to allow parties to negotiate conditions despite vast differences in positions. This report triggered a late-session spike in gold and silver, while international oil prices plummeted.
Amidst the opaque geopolitical maneuvering, retail investors—historically the most reliable "buy-the-dip" cohort in recent years—appeared to lose enthusiasm as stocks hit near six-month lows. Data from Vanda Research showed that retail investors recorded their first day of net selling since November 2023 on Monday, offloading $20.6 million worth of equities. Vanda macro strategist Ruta Prieskienyte noted that since early March, the market has been characterized by declining retail participation and systemic deleveraging, with long-term capital and hedge funds providing only modest support.
Terry Sandven, Chief Equity Strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, remarked: "Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the Iran situation. Until the outlook becomes clearer, the market is likely to remain range-bound with significant volatility. A break below the 6,500 level for the S&P 500 could open the door for further downside."
Global Markets
Trump Approval Rating Hits Post-Inauguration Low
As the conflict in the Middle East drives up the cost of living for Americans, a new poll released Tuesday showed President Trump’s approval rating dropped to 36% from 40% last week, marking its lowest level since his return to the White House.
NASA Bets on Lunar Base and Nuclear-Powered Spacecraft
New NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman announced Tuesday that the agency will cancel plans for a lunar-orbiting space station (Gateway). Instead, NASA will pivot to building a $20 billion base on the lunar surface within seven years. The agency also plans to launch a nuclear-powered deep-space vehicle by 2028 to pave the way for future Mars missions.
Corporate News
Arm Enters Chip Manufacturing with Orders from Meta and OpenAI
SoftBank-owned Arm released its first self-developed chip, the AGI CPU, designed for agentic AI workloads in data centers. Each chip features up to 136 Neoverse V3 cores with a 300-watt power envelope. Meta is the launch partner and lead customer, while OpenAI, Cloudflare, and SAP also plan to purchase the silicon.
CEO Rene Haas expects annual revenue to hit $25 billion in five years, with the new chip representing a $15 billion "revenue opportunity" by 2031. Arm shares fell 1.41% in regular trading but surged over 6% post-market following the revenue forecast.
U.S. VC Fund Surges 10x in Four Days
The Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX), which debuted on the NYSE last Thursday, soared another 64% Tuesday to close at $314.99—ten times its $31.25 IPO price. The speculative frenzy is driven by the fund's holdings in high-profile startups including Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX.
Circle Sees Record Single-Day Drop
Stablecoin issuer Circle plummeted 20.11% Tuesday, its largest daily decline ever. The sell-off follows reports that the latest version of the "Clarity Act" crypto bill may prohibit issuers from paying interest-like yields to stablecoin holders—a key customer acquisition tool. Coinbase, the primary distribution platform for USDC, fell 9.76%. Separately, rival Tether announced it has hired an unnamed Big Four accounting firm to audit its USDT reserves for the first time.
Forex & Commodities
International oil prices dived late in the session.
WTI Crude: Settled up $0.26 (+0.30%) at $88.39/bbl (before the late-session slide).COMEX Gold: Surged $67.60 (+1.53%) to $4,474.90/oz.
COMEX Silver: Jumped $2.09 (+3.01%) to $71.445/oz.Spot Gold/Silver: Gained 1.53% and 3.05% respectively.
Key Events
Thai Tanker Safely Transits Strait of Hormuz, Signaling Limited Passage for "Non-Hostile" Vessels
Thailand’s Foreign Minister confirmed Tuesday that a Thai tanker, anchored in the Persian Gulf since March 11, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz following consultations with Iran and Oman. Bangchak Corp confirmed the vessel is now crossing the Indian Ocean and is expected to deliver crude to Thailand in early April. The move is seen as a signal of limited passage for non-hostile vessels.
Cryptocurrency
The crypto market showed mixed momentum:
Bitcoin (BTC): $70,642.65 (-0.01%), Ethereum (ETH): $2,158.99 (+0.84%), Hyperliquid (HYPE): $40.69 (+8.38%).
Key Events
Bernstein: Bitcoin May Have Hit a Local Bottom
Brokerage Bernstein stated in a report that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out, maintaining a $150,000 price target for year-end 2026. Analysts attributed the recent pullback to high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and ETF outflows, but noted that fundamental drivers remain intact.