GoAI Market Wrap - 26th Mar

Stock Market

Overnight, the three major U.S. indices recorded their second joint gaining session of the week, driven by expectations of a "ceasefire and negotiation" between the U.S. and Iran despite the vast discrepancies in proposed terms.

 

The S&P 500 rose 0.54% to 6,591.90. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.77% to 21,929.83. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.66% to 46,429.49.

 

The "15-point peace plan" proposed by the U.S. reportedly demands that Iran dismantle its primary nuclear facilities and reduce its missile capabilities to purely defensive levels. In contrast, Iran's counter-conditions include tangible guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will cease hostilities against Tehran, war reparations, and the formal recognition of its jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Regarding the White House's repeated mentions of "negotiations with Iran," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to state television that while the U.S. has used several friendly nations to relay peace proposals over the past few days—which are currently being studied by Tehran—this "exchange of information" via intermediaries does not constitute direct negotiations with the United States.

 

The Foreign Minister also emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is "closed only to enemies," noting that the Iranian military has "provided safe passage" for vessels from friendly nations. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a warning following intelligence reports that enemies of Iran, supported by a "certain regional country," are preparing to seize an Iranian island. Ghalibaf stated that should they dare to act, all of that country's critical infrastructure would become targets for relentless strikes.

 

At the same time, as reports from the Gulf suggest Iran is unwilling to negotiate further with U.S. Middle East Envoy Steven Witkoff or Jared Kushner, attention has shifted to U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who has remained largely silent during the conflict. Reports from hours ago indicate the U.S. is attempting to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend, which Vance is expected to attend. However, the timing, location, and attendee list remain fluid, and it is unclear if any Iranian representatives will be present.

 

Elias Haddad, strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), noted: "Despite the strategic ambiguity in the geopolitical landscape, current market positioning has begun to bet on a de-escalation of the conflict. Ultimately, how Iran responds to the U.S. shift toward a 'de-escalation' policy will determine whether the market has moved past its most panicked phase or if greater risks lie ahead."

 

On the other side of the conflict, Israel is reportedly "accelerating the pace of its strikes on Iran." According to several sources familiar with the matter, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered on Tuesday that every effort be made over the next 48 hours to destroy as many Iranian military-industrial facilities as possible. This rush reflects Israeli concerns that the war may soon be forced into a halt.

Global Markets

Iranian Foreign Minister: "Exchanging Information" via Intermediaries, Not Negotiating

 

Foreign Minister Araghchi stated on the 25th that while proposals are being studied, the use of mediating countries to exchange information does not mean Iran is in negotiations with the U.S.

 

Iranian Military Sources: Other Fronts May Open if Provoked

 

A military source stated on the 25th that Iran is continuously monitoring enemy movements. If enemies attempt ground operations on Iranian islands or territories, or increase Iranian defense costs through naval activities in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Iran will open other fronts in response.

 

USPS Proposes "Fuel Surcharge" on Express Shipments

 

The U.S. Postal Service announced Wednesday a proposed 8% temporary surcharge on parcels and Priority Mail to combat rising transportation costs, including fuel spikes driven by the Middle East war. If approved, the hike would take effect April 26 and last until January 17, 2027.

Corporate News

U.S. Rules on First Social Media Addiction Case

 

In a landmark verdict, a federal jury in Los Angeles ruled Wednesday that Meta and Google’s YouTube are liable for the depression and anxiety of a woman who became addicted to social media as a child. Meta was ordered to pay $2.1 million in damages, while Google must pay at least $900,000.

 

Merck to Acquire Terns for $6.7 Billion

 

Merck & Co. announced Wednesday a $6.7 billion all-cash deal to acquire oncology biotech Terns Pharmaceuticals, gaining access to a promising leukemia treatment. Terns shares rose 5.72% on the news, while Merck gained 2.58%.

 

Google’s Latest AI Audio Model Creates Full 3-Minute Songs

 

Google released Lyria 3 Pro on Wednesday. The primary upgrade is the ability to generate full three-minute tracks, a significant jump from the 30-second limit of the Lyria 3 model launched last month.

 

U.S. Significantly Increases Orders for Critical Missile Systems

 

Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems reached an agreement with the Pentagon to quadruple the production of seekers for the THAAD interceptor. Additionally, Lockheed will ramp up production of the PrSM (Precision Strike Missile), the intended successor to the ATACMS.

Forex & Commodities

International oil prices declined on March 25 as ceasefire expectations grew.

 

• WTI Crude: Fell $1.06 (-1.15%) to settle at $91.29/bbl.
• COMEX Gold: Surged $101.30 (+2.30%) to $4,503.30/oz.
• COMEX Silver: Rose 2.70% to $71.445/oz.
• Spot Gold: Rose 0.72% to $4,506.53/oz.

Key Events

Saudi Crude "Great Migration" Accelerates as Yanbu Pushes Toward 5 Million BPD

 

Saudi Arabia is ramping up crude loadings at its Yanbu port on the Red Sea to compensate for supplies usually exported via the Persian Gulf.

 

Since late February, Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, halting the transit of roughly 15 million barrels of oil per day. This closure has sent oil prices higher and left global refiners facing critical fuel shortages.

Cryptocurrency

• Bitcoin (BTC): $71,287.45 (+0.79%)
• Ethereum (ETH): $2,165.50 (+0.25%)
• TRON (TRX): $0.3141 (+2.37%)

Key Events

Study: Bitcoin Miners Average $19,000 Loss Per BTC

 

A difficulty regression model by Checkonchain indicates that as of mid-March, the average production cost for Bitcoin is approximately $88,000, while the market price sits near $69,000.

 

This implies an average loss of $19,000 per coin. Rising electricity costs driven by Middle East tensions are further squeezing margins, prompting some public miners to pivot toward AI and high-performance computing (HPC) for stable revenue.