Tonight's Highlights | Ceasefire News Triggers Global Stock Market Relief Rally, Oil Prices Plummet
A temporary ceasefire in the Iran conflict has sparked a long-awaited relief rally across global stock markets. Despite widespread concerns over deep divisions between U.S. and Iranian negotiation demands, the avoidance of the worst-case scenario has been sufficient to trigger a rebound.
Nasdaq 100 futures (June 2026 contract) rose 3.33%, S&P 500 futures gained 2.58%, and Dow Jones futures advanced 2.57%. Brent crude futures plummeted 11%, erasing nearly half of their gains since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, and are currently trading around $92 per barrel. WTI crude futures also crashed 16% to $92.50 per barrel.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index has risen more than 4%, on track for its largest single-day gain since March 2022.
Barclays' equity strategy team warned that a "strong short squeeze" could occur in equity markets as hedge funds unwind protective positions put in place to hedge against further escalation. Data compiled by Goldman Sachs last week showed hedge funds net-sold global equities at the fastest pace in nearly 13 years during March.
The U.S., Israel, and Iran have reportedly agreed to a two-week temporary ceasefire, with U.S.-Iran negotiations set to begin this Friday (April 10) in Islamabad, Pakistan. Iran has stated it will only accept an end to hostilities after details are finalized under its proposed "10-point plan," which includes control over Strait of Hormuz shipping, U.S. military withdrawal from the Gulf, full compensation for Iranian losses, and the lifting of all international sanctions.
On the closely watched issue of Strait of Hormuz navigation, the latest reports indicate Iran still requires all vessels to obtain permission before passing through the waterway.
Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed a pause in attacks on Iran, though the ceasefire excludes Lebanon.
Trump also posted multiple messages Wednesday before U.S. markets opened, stating he was discussing "tariff reductions and sanctions relief" with Iran while threatening any country supplying military weapons to Iran with an "immediate 50% tariff" on all exports to the U.S.
Against the backdrop of the broad market rebound, sectors with clear profit prospects are seeing capital inflows.
Memory and AI infrastructure concepts surged collectively. As of press time, Micron Technology rose more than 9% premarket Wednesday, SanDisk gained 8.89%, while Seagate and Western Data both climbed over 7%. NVIDIA advanced more than 3%, with Intel and AMD both rising over 5%.
Earlier Wednesday in South Korean trading, Samsung Electronics gained 7.12%, SK Hynix rose 12.77%, and Kioxia Holdings surged more than 18% on news it was considering its first-ever dividend payout.
Along with the sharp oil price decline, airline and cruise/travel concept stocks also rallied strongly. United Airlines jumped more than 13% premarket, Southwest Airlines gained 11%, Carnival Cruise Line rose 11%, and Royal Caribbean Cruises advanced over 8%.
Meanwhile, Chevron and Exxon Mobil both fell more than 5%, Cheniere Energy, the largest U.S. LNG exporter, dropped over 6%, while chemical sector stocks Dow Chemical and CF Industries both declined more than 10%.
With the Iranian conflict cloud temporarily lifted, markets are also repricing expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts this year. The U.S. central bank will release minutes from its latest policy meeting early Thursday Beijing time.
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