More Insider Trading? Mysterious Funds "Short Oil, Long Stocks" with Perfect Timing Before Ceasefire

Precision shorting of crude, longing of U.S. equities, and eleventh-hour bets in prediction markets—on Wednesday, as many investors lamented missing the opportunity to play the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, post-trade data revealed that a select group managed to catch the "last train" for a massive windfall just before Trump’s announcement.

 

Reports indicate that just hours before the ceasefire was declared, a massive $950 million bet appeared in the oil futures market, wagering heavily on a price drop. According to LSEG data, at 19:45 GMT on Tuesday, investors sold a total of 8,600 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures.

 

This sudden surge of short orders proved "impeccably correct." By approximately 06:30 time Wednesday, Trump retracted his threat to destroy "all of [Iranian] civilization" and announced a two-week ceasefire. This sent oil futures plunging roughly 15% at the open, dropping below $100 per barrel.

 

Analysts noted that while it is common for traders to hedge physical oil with futures, such trades are rarely executed as single large blocks. Traders typically prefer "sweep-to-fill" orders across multiple exchanges using algorithms over several hours to avoid moving the price. Furthermore, large orders are seldom executed after the daily settlement at 18:30 GMT.

 

This uncanny success recalls a similar move on March 23, when investors dumped $500 million in oil futures just 15 minutes before Trump announced he would delay strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, an event that subsequently triggered a 15% price crash.

Precise Bets in Options and Prediction Markets

Beyond the oil market, Wednesday also saw enviable successes in U.S. stock options and prediction markets. One unidentified trader, who placed a massive bet on U.S. calls before the news, saw paper profits hit approximately $23 million on Wednesday.

 

 

At Tuesday, this trader spent roughly $12 million in premiums to buy 6,800 lots of S&P 500 call options with a 6,950 strike price expiring May 8, while the index was trading near 6,556. By early April 9, with the S&P 500 rising to 6,773, the position was valued at $35 million.

 

While Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives intelligence, suggested this could simply be a "classic case of chasing upside momentum," bets in prediction markets appeared more suspicious.

 

Blockchain research firm Bubblemaps reported that three accounts on Polymarket profited over $600,000 by correctly betting on the ceasefire. These accounts were notable for having made a killing weeks earlier by betting on a U.S. attack on Iran. They began buying "Yes" (ceasefire) contracts in late March and early April when the odds were below 35%.

 

"Their track record of repeatedly predicting sudden strikes and shifts in Iran suggests they may have access to superior information," Bubblemaps posted on X. Analysis also showed at least 50 newly created accounts placed massive "Yes" bets shortly before Trump’s Truth Social post at Thursday.

 

Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), who has proposed legislation to regulate prediction markets, issued a statement Wednesday: "These are highly unlikely to be good-faith trades; more likely, these are insiders with access to non-public information. Without restrictions, there is nothing to stop government or military officials from using their positions for personal gain."