Tonight's Highlights | Doubt Looms Over US‑Iran Ceasefire; Oil Rebounds, U.S. Stocks Weaken

Ahead of Thursday’s session, lingering doubts over the durability of the U.S.‑Iran ceasefire have sent oil prices back upward, while U.S. equities have returned to a risk‑off “pre‑weekend caution” mood.

 

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures jumped more than 3%, trading near $98/bbl. WTI crude surged over 5%, approaching the $100/bbl mark.

 

The reversal higher in oil came as Israel launched heavy strikes on Lebanon, putting the already fragile U.S.‑Iran ceasefire at severe risk. According to media reports, on Wednesday — the first day of the U.S. and Israeli pause on attacks against Iran — Israel carried out its largest‑scale strikes across Lebanon since the start of the recent conflict.

 

Lebanon’s civil defense reported at least 254 dead and 1,165 injured from the massive air raids. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati declared April 9 a national day of mourning for civilians killed in the Israeli attacks.

 

Iran and mediator Pakistan have stated the temporary truce covers Lebanon, but the White House and Israel have publicly denied this. Against this backdrop, markets have deep skepticism over whether upcoming high‑level U.S.‑Iran talks will even proceed, let alone yield meaningful results.

 

On Thursday, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly and the most senior official in Iran’s negotiating delegation, emphasized that Lebanon and the entire “Axis of Resistance” form an integral part of the ceasefire arrangement — the first point in Iran’s 10‑point plan.

 

Ghalibaf also warned that any violation of the truce would carry a clear cost and trigger a strong response, urging an “immediate end to hostilities.” At the same time, major global shipping lines have signaled the fragile temporary ceasefire is insufficient to restore safe passage.

 

Maersk said in a statement that while the truce may create potential transit opportunities, it has not brought full maritime certainty, and the company “needs clarity on any attached conditions.” Data from ship tracker Kpler showed that despite Wednesday being the first day of the truce, only 5 bulk carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz — no oil tankers or gas carriers — marking the lowest level since late March.

 

As Middle East tensions remain gridlocked, the U.S. earnings season kicks off next week, led by first‑quarter results from JPMorgan Chase. Helen Jewell, Chief Investment Officer for Fundamental Equities at BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — struck a decidedly bearish tone.

 

She warned that market earnings forecasts for the full year appear overly optimistic, given inflation and interest rate pressures stemming from the Middle East war. Consensus estimates currently project 16% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, which would be the strongest pace since 2021 if realized.

 

Jewell commented: “Markets are underestimating how sticky inflation could be, and how high and persistent oil prices may remain for longer.” Shortly before press time, the U.S. February core PCE price index was released, rising 0.4% month‑on‑month and 3.0% year‑on‑year — both in line with estimates.

 

However, the data reflects conditions before the Iran‑driven surge in oil prices and offers little guidance for current market dynamics.

Other News

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Indian generic weight-loss drugs hit Eli Lilly sales

 

After Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 weight-loss drug semaglutide lost patent protection in India at the end of March, dozens of generic versions flooded the market.

 

Data from research firm Pharmarack showed that between March 21 and 31, semaglutide’s share of India’s GLP-1 segment jumped to 33% from 25% the previous month.

 

The share gain came at the expense of Eli Lilly, whose tirzepatide fell from 71% to 64%.

 

OpenAI eyes $100B in ad revenue by 2030

 

Market reports Thursday said OpenAI expects to generate roughly $2.5 billion in advertising revenue this year, rising to as much as $100 billion annually by 2030.

 

The company recently launched an early ad business pilot that has generated about $100 million in annual recurring revenue in less than two months.

 

OpenAI told investors it forecasts rapid growth in ad revenue: $11 billion in 2027, $25 billion in 2028, and $53 billion in 2029.

 

Cathie Wood buys Tesla shares for 3 straight days

 

Trading data showed ARK Investment Management, led by Cathie Wood, added to Tesla shares from April 6 to April 8, purchasing nearly 81,000 shares across several ETFs, worth an estimated $28 million.

 

It marked the prominent tech investor’s first increase in Tesla holdings since February.

 

Amazon plans ~$200B in 2026 capital spending

 

In his annual letter to shareholders, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy disclosed the company plans roughly $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, focused mainly on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

 

Jassy also revealed AWS’s annualized AI revenue run rate topped $15 billion in Q1 2026 — a growth rate nearly 260 times that of AWS in comparable early years.