Targeting 10,000! JPMorgan Hikes KOSPI Forecast Again Amid Semi Boom

JPMorgan has moved swiftly to revise its outlook, raising the target for the South Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) for the second time in less than a month.

 

The upgrade reflects a potent mix of an accelerating semiconductor cycle, corporate governance reforms, and industrial growth.

 

The bank raised its baseline target for the KOSPI from 7,000 to 9,000, while significantly boosting its "bull case" scenario from 8,500 to 10,000.

 

During the Monday (May 11) Asian session, the KOSPI surged 4.32% to hit a fresh all-time high of 7,822.24. This latest rally suggests a further 28% upside remains to reach JPMorgan’s optimistic 10,000-point milestone.

Robust Fundamentals Fuel Optimism

While JPMorgan noted that the market’s recent gains might appear excessive from a short-term technical perspective, it emphasized that core fundamentals remain exceptionally strong.

 

"The memory chip market is likely entering a sustained upcycle over the next two years, driven by rising average selling prices (ASPs) and shipment volumes," JPMorgan strategist Mixo Das wrote.

 

The report advised investors to maintain their positions to capture further gains and cautioned against prematurely predicting the end of the cycle.

 

JPMorgan is not alone in its bullishness. Goldman Sachs also raised its KOSPI target to 9,000 on May 8, citing AI-driven memory growth as the primary catalyst.

The AI-Memory Supercycle

South Korea’s economy has long been tethered to the semiconductor industry, which accounts for approximately 20% of the nation's total exports.

 

In the first quarter of 2026, memory chip prices soared 25%, propelled by insatiable demand for AI applications and data center expansions.

 

Crucially, memory chip stocks carry a 50% weighting in the KOSPI and have contributed roughly 70% of the index's year-to-date gains.

 

Earlier in May, Samsung Electronics reached a historic $1 trillion market capitalization—a milestone that coincided with the KOSPI breaking through the 7,000-point level. Both Samsung and SK Hynix have seen their share prices climb more than 50% so far this year.