Has the Bottom Arrived? Retail Investors Quietly Buy the Dip After SpaceX’s Wednesday Plunge

SpaceX released its maiden post-IPO earnings report on Tuesday, but the release failed to instill market confidence.

 

By Wednesday's close, SpaceX shares plummeted 13.6% to $108.27, falling nearly 20% below its June 12 IPO price and hitting a new all-time low.

 

However, data from Vanda Research reveals that retail investors stepped in aggressively to buy the dip during Wednesday's sell-off. Within the first hour of trading, retail investors net purchased $22 million worth of SpaceX stock—more than triple their typical daily average.

 

This retail dip-buying signals strong optimism among individual investors, standing in sharp contrast to the persistent selling seen among institutional accounts.

 

Vanda noted in a media comment that institutional investors focused primarily on SpaceX’s surging AI capital expenditures and near-term profitability pressures.

 

Retail investors, however, appear to have reached the opposite conclusion: Wednesday's buying activity suggests they still view aggressive AI investments as enhancing SpaceX's likelihood of becoming a long-term winner, rather than a reason to exit the stock.

Beginning of a Downtrend or a Market Bottom?

The sharp decline stems largely from broad Wall Street anxiety over SpaceX’s massive AI outlays. According to its earnings report, SpaceX's second-quarter capital expenditures topped $18 billion—40% above analyst consensus—with the bulk allocated toward data center construction and AI-related infrastructure.

 

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth noted that SpaceX’s capital expenditures are projected to approach $200 billion across 2027 and 2028, intensifying pressure on free cash flow—a broader trend visible across all major hyperscale operators.

 

At the same time, Epistrophy Capital analyst Cory Johnson cautioned that the first tranche of restricted SpaceX equity will unlock on Thursday.

 

This release will free up hundreds of millions of insider-held shares, representing roughly triple the current public float and valued at over $100 billion.

 

Additional tranches will unlock through August and September, adding to downside risk.

 

However, Brent Donnelly, founder of Spectra Markets, argued that this information is already priced into the market, suggesting the impending supply shock may serve as a misleading distraction rather than a valid bearish signal.

 

Donnelly highlighted three historical case studies illustrating potential price trajectories following lockup expirations, noting that initial unlock dates frequently mark tradeable bottoms, even if a V-shaped recovery does not materialize every time.