November Outlook: Stocks’ Best Month Is Here—Is It Time to Buy?

We think November has room to recover.

Earnings expectations have held up, the election is behind us, and more stocks are joining the rebound. We expect progress to come in fits and starts, with the broader market providing early support and Nvidia’s midmonth results offering a chance for technology to catch up.

Democrats have won both chambers of Congress, leaving the Trump administration facing divided government.

On November 4, the Dow rose 3.03% and nine S&P sectors finished higher. Investors have begun taking risk again, giving November a better start than the mood at the end of October suggested.

Our bias is positive. We would stay involved as the recovery develops, with inflation data and Nvidia’s earnings likely to influence how much further it can go.

What the Selloff Left Behind

Late October’s selling was driven by a reassessment of the cost of growth.

AI orders, cloud revenue, and construction commitments were strong. Investors started taking the payback period seriously: how long until those investments earn a return, how much financing is needed, and whether new capacity can generate enough profit.

Share prices can fall even while the business keeps growing. Investors demanding a higher return will pay less for the same future earnings. That creates an opportunity where a company’s earnings outlook remains intact and its price already reflects a more pessimistic view.

FactSet’s October 30 report gives us a reason to look for those gaps.

S&P 500 fourth-quarter EPS estimates rose about 1.4% from the end of September through October 29.

The…